In May 2022, Bitcoin finds itself navigating a challenging bear market, trading significantly below its late-2021 all-time high. While the current sentiment appears bleak, seasoned investors are already looking ahead to a critical event: the next Bitcoin halving in April 2024. Historically, halvings have served as catalysts for exponential growth in Bitcoin’s price, and the next cycle is expected to be no different. Between November and December 2024, Bitcoin could experience a dramatic rally, potentially achieving a fivefold increase from its current levels. Several key factors underpin this optimistic outlook.

The Bitcoin halving is one of the most significant events in Bitcoin’s economic calendar. Scheduled for April 2024, this event will reduce the block reward miners receive from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, effectively halving the supply of new Bitcoin entering circulation. Previous halvings have triggered powerful bull markets, such as the 2016 event, which preceded a rally from $650 to $20,000, and the 2020 halving, which saw Bitcoin climb from $8,000 to nearly $69,000 within 18 months. As this next halving approaches, the conditions appear ripe for a similar, if not greater, surge, positioning late 2024 as a period of explosive growth.

Institutional adoption and market maturation are expected to amplify Bitcoin’s post-halving momentum. By 2022, companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla had already adopted Bitcoin as part of their corporate treasuries, and futures-based Bitcoin ETFs were gaining traction. By 2024, these trends could evolve further, with the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs unlocking a flood of institutional capital. Additionally, Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against inflation and fiat devaluation is becoming increasingly recognised, with economic uncertainty driving more companies and institutions to allocate a portion of their portfolios to the asset. This growing adoption is expected to push Bitcoin’s market cap higher, creating a foundation for sustained growth.

Global macroeconomic conditions are also likely to fuel Bitcoin’s ascent. Persistent inflation, coupled with fiat currency devaluation, continues to erode trust in traditional financial systems. Central banks’ aggressive monetary tightening in 2022 may offer short-term relief but historically leads to long-term debasement of fiat currencies. Emerging markets, facing heightened economic instability, are beginning to explore Bitcoin as an alternative reserve asset. By late 2024, these trends could mature, further strengthening demand for Bitcoin and setting the stage for a significant price surge.

Bitcoin’s fixed supply and growing demand create a compelling case for a supply-demand imbalance by 2024. On-chain data from 2022 reveals that long-term holders are accumulating Bitcoin at unprecedented rates, with over 80% of the circulating supply now under their control. Simultaneously, Bitcoin balances on exchanges are declining, signaling reduced sell pressure. These factors suggest a tightening supply dynamic that could lead to a sharp price increase once demand surges post-halving. This phenomenon, combined with the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements, is likely to culminate in a parabolic rally.

Historically, Bitcoin operates in four-year cycles influenced by its halvings. Following the 2024 halving, Bitcoin will enter the “post-halving bull run” phase, characterised by explosive price action. In the 2016 and 2020 cycles, Bitcoin rallied by several multiples during this phase, often reaching new all-time highs within 12 to 18 months of the halving. By November 2024, Bitcoin is expected to be in the midst of this bullish phase, with momentum accelerating as institutional interest and retail adoption converge.

Price projections for late 2024 suggest Bitcoin could reach $100,000 to $120,000, representing a fivefold increase from its May 2022 levels. This growth trajectory aligns with historical post-halving patterns and is supported by a confluence of factors, including supply reductions, increased institutional participation, and favorable macroeconomic trends. While volatility is inevitable, the overarching narrative for Bitcoin remains bullish, with late 2024 shaping up to be a defining period in its trajectory.

As of November 2022, the groundwork is being laid for Bitcoin’s next major rally. With its halving on the horizon and institutional and global economic factors aligning, the stage is set for Bitcoin to potentially 5x within a short window in late 2024. Investors who recognise the cyclical nature of Bitcoin and its historical responses to halvings are positioning themselves for what could be one of the most significant opportunities in the asset’s history.