1 September 2023: Bitcoin opened today around $25,900 USD (exchange/broker dependant), and market conditions suggest it could be on the cusp of a significant upward trend over the next 16 months. Analysts at LupoToro Group forecast that Bitcoin could push past $30,000 USD by December 2023 and potentially reach between $80,000 and $95,000 USD by November and December 2024 (based on extended range macroeconomic analysis and fundamental considerations). Pro-crypto policies under a potentially new U.S. administration in 2025 could then see Bitcoin surpass the $100,000 mark, solidifying its role as a key asset in global markets.

Bitcoin’s 2023 Price Momentum

Bitcoin is expected to break through the $30,000 USD mark by year’s end, supported by rising institutional adoption and a growing perception of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and economic instability. Crossing $30,000 would signal renewed optimism in the asset and mark a foundational point for further growth into 2024.

The primary factors bolstering Bitcoin’s momentum are increased institutional buy-in, inflationary pressure driving demand for decentralized assets, and heightened confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term stability. With these forces converging, Bitcoin’s $30,000 target by December appears increasingly within reach.

Path to $80,000 to $95,000 in 2024

The LupoToro Group project that Bitcoin could reach between $80,000 and $95,000 by late 2024, fueled by the upcoming halving event in April 2024. This cyclical reduction in Bitcoin’s supply has historically led to increased demand, setting off bullish market cycles. Post-halving scarcity, combined with an increasingly inflation-conscious investment environment, could catalyse Bitcoin’s next major rally.

Furthermore, U.S. economic policy could play a critical role. As global markets face inflationary pressures, Bitcoin is becoming a favored store of value. The possibility of a pro-crypto U.S. administration following the 2024 elections is adding to the bullish sentiment, as Trump’s history in business suggests he may adopt favorable policies for digital assets. Trump’s track record of utilising tangible assets as collateral for debt management aligns with Bitcoin’s emerging status as “digital gold” and its potential use as a debt hedge.

Delayed “Alt Season” and XRP’s Battle with the SEC

While Bitcoin is poised for growth, the “alt season”—when alternative cryptocurrencies typically experience rapid price increases—may be delayed. A key factor in this delay is Ripple Labs’ ongoing legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the status of XRP, Ripple’s native cryptocurrency. The uncertainty surrounding XRP’s regulatory status dampens short-term growth prospects for the asset, particularly in U.S. markets.

This regulatory pressure on XRP has broader implications for the altcoin market, delaying a full-scale alt season until late 2024 or early 2025, when clearer regulatory conditions may emerge. For XRP and other altcoins, overcoming these regulatory hurdles will be crucial in reclaiming their growth potential. The next alt season, expected to arrive between Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, could present significant opportunities once the dust around XRP’s legal situation has settled.

Trump’s Influence on the Crypto Landscape: A Potential Policy Shift

Lukewarm polling for both Biden and Trump indicates that a Trump victory in 2024 is within the realm of possibility, especially if Trump maintains momentum in his campaign. Should Trump win, he is expected to adopt a pro-crypto stance, with a likely reduction in regulatory constraints and capital gains taxes on digital assets. Trump’s business philosophy has consistently favored tangible asset-based solutions to debt, suggesting he may consider Bitcoin as a national reserve asset or a tool for managing U.S. debt.

Given Bitcoin’s limited supply, the digital asset could serve as a “reserve asset” in much the same way gold has been used historically. Gold, however, may not be practical as a debt hedge due to supply limitations, whereas Bitcoin offers a potentially higher per capita value. Utilising Bitcoin as a reserve asset would represent a significant shift in U.S. economic policy, attracting global investment and increasing the asset’s valuation substantially.

Should Trump indeed continue with his presidential campaigning and win the anticipated 2024 election, it would not be unlikely for him to want to increase innovation in the cryptocurrency space by reducing or removing capital gains on US-owned and backed cryptocurrency projects. This would mean projects like XRP Ripple and ADA Cardano would likely see significant uplift pre and during an alt-season.

Our analysts expect XRP Ripple to reach over US $1.00 before the end of 2024, with a low estimate around US $0.70 (currently, the XRP price is sitting around US $0.48). ADA is expected to reach around US $0.65 before the end of 2024 (currently sitting around US $0.24). Both estimates provided here, notably being prior to any major ‘alt-season’ run (i.e. pre alt-season).

LupoToro Group analysts are closely examining the latest entrants in the emerging neo-technology crypto-asset space, particularly layer-1 coins like SUI. A layer-1 coin refers to the primary cryptocurrency of a foundational blockchain network, which operates independently and provides the base layer for additional applications and decentralized finance (DeFi) solutions to be built directly on top of it. Sui, a layer-1 blockchain launched in May 2023, simplifies the deployment of smart contracts for developers and boasts an advanced architecture that enables simultaneous processing of multiple transactions, enhancing speed and efficiency. Currently trading around USD $0.48, Sui is projected to exceed USD $3.30 by Q4 2024, with substantial potential for additional growth as adoption of its technology increases.

Alt-What?

An “alt season” in cryptocurrency refers to a period when alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins), or coins other than Bitcoin, experience rapid price increases, often outperforming Bitcoin in terms of percentage gains. This phenomenon typically occurs after Bitcoin has had a significant rally, attracting widespread investor interest in the broader crypto market and increasing liquidity across various coins. As Bitcoin’s price stabilizes, investors often begin reallocating profits from Bitcoin into altcoins, especially those with strong utility, potential for growth, or new technology, in search of higher returns. Alt seasons are also driven by speculative excitement, the emergence of promising altcoin projects, and favorable market conditions, including increased regulatory clarity and rising adoption of blockchain applications. Altcoins are generally more volatile and can provide outsized gains during these periods, making alt seasons a unique and highly anticipated phase in crypto market cycles.

Tariff Policies and Economic Strengthening Under a Trump Administration

If Trump returns to office in 2024, he is likely to implement aggressive tariff policies aimed at boosting the U.S. economy—a strategy that aligns with his previous approach to international trade. Trump has historically used tariffs to incentivise domestic production, shield U.S. industries, and negotiate more advantageous trade terms. Should this approach be repeated, it could indirectly influence Bitcoin’s value by increasing inflationary pressures, particularly if trade restrictions push up the cost of imported goods.

In Trump’s economic model, tariffs serve as “checkpoints” that redirect trade revenues into the U.S. economy. If paired with Bitcoin-friendly policies, these tariffs could amplify Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against currency devaluation and inflation. Should tariffs fuel domestic economic growth, Bitcoin could see increased demand as a store of value within the U.S. market.

The Road to $100,000 and Beyond: 2025 Outlook

Looking beyond 2024, we anticipate that Bitcoin could surpass the $100,000 USD threshold in 2025. The combination of Bitcoin’s post-halving scarcity, growing institutional adoption, and potential policy shifts under a Trump administration would create a uniquely favorable environment for digital assets.

If the U.S. adopts more crypto-friendly policies, Bitcoin could see unprecedented demand from both institutional and retail investors. Additionally, should the U.S. government recognise Bitcoin as a reserve asset, it would signal a profound shift in how digital assets are perceived on the global stage, potentially triggering an influx of capital into Bitcoin.

The convergence of these factors—scarcity, market adoption, and policy shifts—suggests that Bitcoin’s upward trajectory could extend well into 2025. As altcoins recover from regulatory challenges, the next alt season could offer substantial opportunities across the broader crypto market, reshaping the entire digital asset ecosystem.

Disclaimer: This article reflects the opinions of LupoToro Group Analysts and is intended for guidance purposes only. It is not to be construed as financial advice. Should you wish to find out more about cryptocurrency trading, investment or other investment options, please contact the LupoToro Group today.